FED:Govt shifts from detail to retail in 2012

AAP General News (Australia)
12-30-2011
FED:Govt shifts from detail to retail in 2012

By Paul Osborne, AAP Senior Political Writer

CANBERRA, AAP - Julia Gillard has ticked off the 2011 parliamentary year with her Labor
team intact, despite the best efforts of the coalition to show minority government can't
work.

The prime minister is now looking confidently toward 2012, when Labor will pull out
all the stops to show Australians it can build on its policy successes and manage the
rich vein of revenue set to flow from two key deliveries - the carbon and mining profits
taxes.

"This year was the detail, next year is the retail," a Labor strategist told AAP.

Many on the Labor side believe voters will recover from their anger over Gillard's
broken election promise on carbon pricing once compensatory tax cuts and pension rises
start flowing through, setting the government up for a rosy 2012.

Gillard also has a powerful new communications manager, former Tony Blair spin doctor
John McTernan, and his influence will be felt as she refines her political messages.

However - given public opposition to a carbon tax has been rusted for a year - Coalition
Leader Tony Abbott won't be letting the government off the hook.

Abbott, whose relentless campaign gave the word opposition new meaning in 2011, remains
intent on bringing down Labor from the July 1 start date of the carbon and mining profits
taxes.

But his task will be a harder after Liberal turncoat Peter Slipper accepted Labor's
offer to elevate him to Speaker of the House, replacing Harry Jenkins who heads to the
backbench.

The stunning manoeuvre on the final day of parliament for 2011 gives Gillard a two-vote
buffer and reduces the chances of an early election, just as the opinion polls pointed
to an improvement in her political fortunes.

At the start of 2011, Labor had a slim lead over the coalition and Gillard was ahead
of Abbott in the preferred prime minister stakes.

But once the government declared its hand on the carbon tax - dealt to them by the
Greens holding a seat in the lower house and the balance of power in the Senate - the
polls went into freefall.

Labor hit a record low and Gillard's personal standing dipped below that of Kevin Rudd
at his worst, sparking rumblings of a return to the former leader.

But as the year came to a close the prime minister was ticking off her to do list.

Carbon pricing is now law and the mining profits tax is through the lower house and
set to pass the Senate early in the new year.

An outstanding item on Gillard's list is how to tackle asylum seeker boat arrivals.

The government's plans have been stymied at every quarter, although it continues to
insist the issue is best handled through a swap deal with Malaysia.

It's best hopes rest with the opposition agreeing to a bipartisan solution, details
of which were initially thrashed during high level talks just before Christmas.

Acting Prime Minister Wayne Swan has proposed he government would talk to the island
nation of Nauru about resurrecting the former Howard coalition government's Pacific Solution
and reopening its since abandoned processing centre.

In return, the government wants the opposition to help it pass - unchanged - legislative
changes to the Migration Act to allow the Malaysia deal to proceed.

The opposition hasn't agreed, but it hasn't ruled out further talks - offering a slim
chance that a compromise may be reached in the new year.

Fortunately for the government so far, its current option - onshore processing - is
popular with the public, the Greens, the independents and much of the Labor caucus. That
is, until the detention facilities start becoming overloaded.

Economic management will remain a key touchstone for the Coalition in 2012 as Australia
potentially faces the worst global financial conditions since the 2008-2009 world crisis.

Under the Howard Coalition government, 10 out of 12 budgets were in surplus but Labor
treasurers have not delivered a surplus since 1989.

Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey told AAP the coalition will trumpet its strong
track record on the economy and be relentless in holding the government to its promise
of a surplus in 2012/13.

As well, workplace relations will remain a hot topic with a review of the Fair Work
act due to get underway in early 2012.

While Work Choices was a disaster for the Howard government there is a strong feeling
amongst business groups that the Fair Work system designed by Gillard has swung the pendulum
too far to the unions.

The topic carries some danger for Abbott, despite his constant reassurance to voters
that Work Choices - which was widely feared by workers - is "dead, buried and cremated".

Former Howard adviser and new Senator Arthur Sinodinos in November gave a hint to where
the Liberals are heading on the issue, when he admitted the party had "failed to prepare
the ground" for Work Choices and called for an upcoming probe into the Fair Work Act to
be a "fair dinkum evidence-based review".

While there should be a safety net in workplace agreements, the choice of agreements
should be a matter for the parties involved and workers should have a choice in who represents
them, whether it be unions or other advocates, he added.

However, the prime minister will need to dampen expectations of any major reform in
this area while keeping the Work Choices bogeyman alive.

Labor will also need to watch out for new speaker Mr Slipper - dubbed Slippery Pete
by his former party colleagues.

As of early December, Mr Slipper had managed to evade the media, which is stalking
the now independent over his past use of parliamentary expenses and his recent political
about-face.

If challenges to Mr Slipper's integrity begin to shake the prestige of the Speaker's
role there may be cause to question his entitlement to the position.

The lift in the polls for Gillard towards the end of 2011 come on the back of her success
in managing the minority government, as well as her confidence on the world stage amongst
leaders such as US President Barack Obama.

To remain on course, the prime minister will need to ensure her promise to deliver
is not just a slogan.

AAP pjo/klm/mo

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